Breer: Ty Simpson Isn't a First Rounder

Fifteen days out from the draft, Albert Breer leans into the hard take on Ty Simpson. The ceiling conversation is interesting. The first-round case, in his view, is not there yet.

Breer says he cannot place Simpson in the first round. When he talks to enough people, he hears a fascinating contrast between Simpson and Fernando Mendoza. People tell him you see a lot on Simpson's tape that translates directly to the NFL that you do not see on Mendoza's Indiana tape.

What does that mean exactly. With Mendoza at Indiana, scouts see a lot of RPOs. Because he has great receivers around him, things frequently go according to plan. That does not mean Mendoza cannot read the whole field. It just means you do not see him having to do it as often. Omar Cooper is probably a first-round pick. Elijah Sarratt might be top 100. Charlie Becker returns as a sophomore. Three NFL receivers, which inflates the support around Mendoza's reads.

So if you are just looking at what is on tape, Simpson might actually project more cleanly to the NFL than Mendoza does. But that is not the job of the scout.

Breer lays it out. The scout's job is not to look back at the last year and rank who accomplished more. It is to project forward. And Mendoza is six-five, 236 pounds, with a bigger arm and more career starts, which Breer calls a really important thing.

The comp he hears for Mendoza is Jared Goff. The comp he hears for Simpson is Brock Purdy.

That is where the decision splits.

Are you comfortable taking a Brock Purdy profile in the first round. A lot of teams are not. Breer mentions the Steelers as a team some people have floated. He does not think Pittsburgh does it. Part of that logic is they already made the gamble four years ago on Kenny Pickett, a quarterback without the same physical traits as typical first-round quarterbacks, and it did not work out.

Breer's guess is Simpson goes somewhere in the second round for those reasons. He does not think people look at Simpson and say this guy projects to be a top-ten quarterback in football. If you can talk yourself into him getting into the top fifteen at some point, you are having a different conversation. But Breer thinks most teams drafting a quarterback in the first round want a guy with a shot at the top ten someday. Mendoza has a better shot at that based on physical ability.

The comparison to Mendoza is the part that lands hardest. It reframes the entire Simpson conversation. It is not just about whether Simpson has first-round traits. It is about whether he has first-round traits relative to the other quarterback in the class who also might slide. And in Breer's reading of the league, Mendoza wins that comparison on the things scouts cannot teach.