S.I.’s Albert Breer on How Soon We’ll See the Top NFL Rookie QBs on the Field

Albert Breer thinks Fernando Mendoza will start more games than any other rookie quarterback in 2026. He also thinks Carson Beck might start more games than people expect, for reasons most people are not paying attention to.

The Sports Illustrated reporter, on the show with Rich, walked through the field. Mendoza, drafted first overall by the Raiders, leads the list because history says he should. 'It's Mendoza, because he's the number one overall pick,' Breer said. 'And history tells us that there's going to come a point in the season that he's going to be in there.'

Beck, taken by the Cardinals as the first pick of the third round, is the one who gives him pause. Arizona, in Breer's read, knows what it has in Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew, which is the version of certainty that opens the door for a younger evaluation if the season gets away from them. 'If you get to a point where you've fallen out of contention, do you want to at least evaluate him before making a decision on how you're going to handle the quarterback position in 2027?'

Breer also dropped a piece of intel he said surprised him as it surfaced. 'A couple of them told me Beck was the smartest of the quarterbacks that they sat down with,' he said of the coaches and scouts he canvassed before the draft. 'A guy who played six years in college, who has football IQ, it would seem to me like he would probably be ready to go too.'

Before Beck or Mendoza touches the field, though, Breer expects Kirk Cousins to be the Raiders starter on opening day. The history is the guide. 'If the team is in contention and you have a veteran quarterback at the controls, generally that's the only scenario where a first-round quarterback sits the entire year.' If Vegas is winning, Cousins keeps the job. If they aren't, the clock starts. Mendoza needs reps anyway. The system at Cal and Indiana was spread and RPO heavy, Breer said, and there is a translation curve into a pro offense.

Rich asked the question every Rams fan is already asking. When does Ty Simpson play his first game? Breer hesitated. 'I'm a little uncomfortable with this. Just because like I feel like I'd be predicting an injury, but Matthew Stafford does have injury history, right? So it's possible he plays in 2026 if Matthew Stafford gets hurt for a game or two.' His real guess is 2027.

What he wanted to push back on, though, was the framing of the Simpson pick as a luxury. 'I do think part of the equation for the Rams here, now, they moved that 29th pick for Trent McDuffie, right? And that's very much a win-now move. Well, that 13th pick, like using the 13th pick on Ty Simpson now frees them up to use future picks as capital.' That, in his read, is what the Rams actually bought at 13. 'They got their quarterback of the future, and they're sort of liberated to operate like the Rams have traditionally operated in the past, because they don't have to worry about Matthew Stafford's replacement anymore.'