Rapoport on Ty Simpson Round 1 Odds

Ten days out from the draft, the Ty Simpson question is whether he sneaks into round one. Ian Rapoport's read is that he probably does, but not in the way the top of the board plays out.

Rapoport sees a Jackson Dart situation. Pick 22, 23, somebody looks at the board, looks at the Cardinals and Jets waiting on Friday, and the math on waiting versus trading flips. Arizona picks second on Friday night. The Jets pick first. Everyone around the league believes the Jets are holding for the 2027 class. Except if they are not. Then Simpson is gone and the Cardinals are the team that decided not to chase him.

That is where trades live.

His guess: picks 25 through 32. A team climbs for Simpson. Maybe Arizona is the one climbing. Maybe Arizona sits at 34 and lets someone else take the swing. Either way, the Cardinals do not get killed if they miss because they still have Jacoby Brissett and Mike LaFleur is new in the building, meaning no seat is hot yet.

Cleveland at 24 is the pressure point. The Browns need a quarterback. Rapoport would be surprised if they came away with one, but if you are Arizona you cannot assume Cleveland passes. That alone could force a team to jump in front.

The bigger force in the room is 2027. Rapoport has asked GMs and evaluators about it, expecting it to come up. It is even bigger than he realized. The quarterback class is considered historic. The position players are considered strong. Teams are planning to hold onto their 2027 firsts and seconds like currency. Which means any team trading back into this first for Simpson has to build the package out of current-year picks and a 2026 second. Not a 2027.

The comp Rapoport keeps hearing on Simpson is Brock Purdy. Physically. Not resume. That matters.

Purdy came out of Iowa State with close to fifty career starts. Simpson does not bring that. So the evaluation is: is he a top-three talent? Pretty talented. Maybe. But the tape-to-reps ratio is thin. That is the risk with any quarterback. The difference is that at pick 27 or 28, the cost of being wrong is survivable. At pick three, it is not.

Which is exactly why Rapoport thinks somebody makes the leap at the back end of Thursday night.