NFL Insider Ian Rapoport Talks Mahomes, Ja’Marr, Tua & More

Ian Rapoport rates his interest in Bill Belichick's second year at North Carolina at an eight out of ten, which is roughly eight points higher than everyone else on the show.

"I know him well. I covered him for decades," Rapoport said. The interest is football, not spectacle. He has not loved the sideshow, and he does not think the program has covered itself in glory on every front, singling out the Michael Lombardi hire as one that has not gone well.

What he wants to know is whether it can work.

Rapoport also pushed back on the shortcut version of Belichick's résumé. Belichick helped create Tom Brady, and also won 11 games with Matt Cassel. The genuine question is whether that transfers to a mid-level college program.

His bar for year two is specific: get to a bowl game, and a decent one. Last year was laying a foundation and learning to recruit. Something like 8-4 would show people this can work.

As for whether Belichick got what he expected, Rapoport was honest that nobody could have. The college football landscape looks different now than it did 18 months ago. Entering it ten years ago would still have been a transition, but at least the ground would have held still.

On the Pro Bowl games being killed, Rapoport had a disclosure first.

"I never really watched the Pro Bowl, if we're being totally honest."

He has attended, and described the experience as fascinating in the wrong way. Not many people trying. One or two guys playing hard, which mostly made you wonder what they were doing. Players not really in shape, which always left him worried someone would get hurt. He thought the flag football pivot was a genuinely good answer at a moment when flag football is having one, but he does not believe players want to work hard after three weeks off.

He does want Pro Bowlers to still exist. Just not the game.

On Patrick Mahomes, Rapoport went further than expected. He was in Kansas City for one of the last training camp practices with Brian Baldinger, and he had been told in advance that Mahomes would look good.

"He looked not good, but great."

Eight or nine months off an ACL, doing everything in practice, looking like himself. Rapoport stopped short of guaranteeing full speed, and allowed that the Chiefs may lean on the run game more, but he trusts their medical and athletic training staff to make the call and thinks there is a good chance Mahomes plays Week 1.

Can the Chiefs be good? They should be, and it hinges on two first-round defenders. Mansoor Delane, a crazy talent who was injured for stretches and is healthy now, and Peter Woods out of Clemson, who Rapoport hears has had a really good camp. If those two start and the defense lands top 12, this offense takes them deep into the playoffs.

On Ja'Marr Chase's knee, the word was mild hyperextension, probably a scare, and he should be fine.

That prompted a broader question about reading between the lines when a player says he is fine and then misses practice.

"Players are generally terrible sources on their own injuries," Rapoport said, and he has the receipts from his Patriots beat days. You catch a guy leaving the locker room, he tells you his knee is good, no problem, and he is out for the season. On Chase specifically he feels confident, but the general rule holds.

Ahead of cuts, he does not expect many shocks. Teams now identify players who will not make it and shop them in March or June instead. Saturday should be a big trade day, mostly depth moves for seventh-rounders, occasionally a sixth when two teams want the same guy. Starters get moved only when a contract dispute is driving it.

On Kyler Murray in Minnesota, Rapoport is optimistic and framed it as smart roster construction. Murray is a cheap flier on a quarterback who is still young. If he plays merely average, call it sixteenth best, the Vikings are pretty good anyway, because the defense is good, Brian Flores does a great job, and Kevin O'Connell always puts a quarterback in position.

His larger point is that this is what they arguably should have done with Sam Darnold. Take the flier, and if it hits, extend him three years and stop wandering the wilderness.

"That's all anyone wants," he said. "You just want an answer."

Atlanta is less settled than the Falcons would like. Tua Tagovailoa had a big head start and an up-and-down camp, possibly better the last few days. Michael Penix Jr. was supposed to be brought along slowly, passed his physical, got into full team practices, and now has a real chance, though he will not play in the final preseason game.

If Tagovailoa struggles, the door is wide open.

On Odell Beckham Jr., Rapoport likes his odds. Beckham has been really good and has been what the Giants wanted. The Calvin Austin injury, which Rapoport hated to see because Austin was having a nice camp, probably created the spot. A good game Friday likely solidifies it.

The ODB question also produced the interview's best accident, because the host meant Odell and Rapoport's office contains a figurine of a different ODB entirely. A friend planted it in his background while visiting to watch football. Rapoport did not notice until someone pointed it out on air. He has seen Wu-Tang Clan twice and calls it the most amazing show of all time.

On Houston, Rapoport still believes in CJ Stroud, who did not play well late last season but by all accounts has had a really good camp. The defense he called awesome twice, crediting Matt Burke's coordinating and play-calling, and he sees no reason the Texans should not be among the eight or ten teams with a real shot.

Miami he expects to be challenging. The coaching staff is good, the cap hit is historic, and the front office is taking its medicine in a great year to have an early pick.

"They're in a little bit of cap hell right now," Rapoport said. Whatever happens, the point is setting up 2027 and 2028.

The closer was Joe Milton, the greatest backup in preseason history.

Rapoport has learned in his career that the preseason is genuinely different, and that plenty of players have shined in it while coaches quietly knew better. But the talent is clearly there, the arm strength is wild, and Milton has impressed when given the chance. Stuck behind Dak Prescott for as long as Prescott wants to play, and then becoming a starter, would be a great outcome.

"I'm curious as well. I really am."