Rapoport on Week 1 QB Odds

Ten days before the NFL Draft, Ian Rapoport sat down for a round of Who Starts Week One. The rules are simple. Rapoport gives his best guess, not a report. If he nails it, everyone celebrates. If he misses, it never happened.

First team up: the Las Vegas Raiders. Rapoport's guess is Kirk Cousins. Money talks. Cousins is on $20 million as a Raiders quarterback, and Rapoport points out he played pretty well down the stretch for Atlanta last year. He thinks Cousins has years left.

He left room for the exception. If Fernando Mendoza walks into the building and the coaching staff decides the rookie has to be the guy, that happens. Rapoport referenced Russell Wilson's third-round arrival in Seattle as the template, obvious fit, no reason to wait. Still, money talks, and Rapoport expects Cousins to take the first snap.

Second team: Cleveland Browns. Rapoport's guess is Deshaun Watson, with the caveat that it'll be a competition. His argument rests on health. When Watson has been healthy, he's been good enough to start. Two years ago he led a comeback the same game he broke his shoulder. Then he got hurt again. Rapoport thinks if Watson is right, he gives the Browns the best chance to win.

Third team: Kansas City Chiefs. This is the tougher one. Rapoport's guess is Patrick Mahomes, but with a real asterisk. Mahomes is putting in seven hours a day of rehab on the surgically repaired LCL, and if he can be on the field Week 1, he will be. The honest part is what comes next. For a month or longer, it's going to look like Mahomes without quite being Mahomes. LCL is a long recovery. Rapoport cited Carson Wentz, who never got all the way back.

That, Rapoport says, is why Kansas City has pushed to upgrade the offensive line and why they signed Kenneth Walker. Reinforcements. The Chiefs are planning for a version of Mahomes that needs the run game and the protection to do the early lifting while he works his way back to himself.

Three QBs. Three cautious calls. One common thread, nobody is quite all the way there yet.