Matt Miller's Final Draft Board

ESPN NFL Draft analyst Matt Miller joined the show ten days out from Pittsburgh with his board locked, 482 players graded, and his final mock draft scheduled for Wednesday morning before the Thursday opener.

On the Jets at two, Miller expects David Bailey. A week ago he viewed it as closer to a coin flip, with one team telling him Aaron Glenn's Jets might lean Arvell Reese as a long-term build. The tide has turned. Aaron Glenn needs to win now. The Jets defense produced zero interceptions last year. When your head coach is a former NFL defensive back and you post zero picks, that's a pass-rush problem. Bailey is the preferred rusher in the building.

On the trade-up market, Miller flagged the Jets and Cowboys as teams to watch. The Jets could package pick 34 plus a fourth to get to seven for Carnell Tate, jumping the Saints and Chiefs to the first wide receiver off the board. Dallas could move up for a corner, with Joey Porter Jr. or Mansoor Delane as targets. Miami at eleven is the logical trade-down partner for Dallas given how many picks the Dolphins have accumulated.

Sharpie picks for Miller: Mekhi Means to Miami at eleven. Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at ten. Dillon Thienem the Oregon safety to Minnesota at eighteen as a replacement for Harrison Smith. Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas at twelve if the Cowboys don't move. The Cowboys team doctor has a strong track record with ACL rehabs, which Miller said makes Dallas more comfortable drafting Porter off the injury.

The late riser: Alabama left tackle Kayden Proctor. He showed up at 390 pounds, played himself into shape, finished the year strong, tested at 354 pounds at the combine, and followed it with a strong pro day. Miller thinks Cleveland at six is a real possibility for Proctor as a sleeper.

On Jeremiah Love, Miller has him at four to the Titans. He called Love the best player in the entire draft class. Pairing him with Cam Ward gives Tennessee a defense-defining weapon the offense currently lacks.

The Ty Simpson conversation was honest. Miller has been pushing back on round-one Simpson talk. Fifteen college starts is not a resume that produces an NFL starter. No precedent exists in the last thirty years. Miller shared a story about Luke Kuechly finding him at a Super Bowl years later to remind him he had written a low scouting report. Miller is hoping for that Simpson moment in ten years. The landing spot worries him. The Jets at sixteen, with a coach on the hot seat and a fan base being prepped for next year's quarterback, is not where Simpson should go.