ESPN’s Matt Miller on Rueben Bain Jr’s Stock & Chiefs’ Draft Options

Matt Miller paints the Chiefs sitting at nine, the run on the top edge rushers has cleaned out Reese and Bailey, and the Ruben Bain Jr. conversation officially starts. He tells Rich this is exactly when he knows he will be talking about Bain on NFL Network's draft coverage, somewhere around pick eight, pick nine, when the obvious names are gone and the question becomes how much the arm length actually matters.

The data is brutal. Since 1999, no pass rusher with sub 31-inch arms has gone in the first round. None has ever posted a ten-sack NFL season. Steve Spagnuolo, the Chiefs defensive coordinator, has historically valued length, six-five, two-sixty-five, the prototype, and it has not worked. Kansas City has been great against the run and unable to get home to the quarterback. So do you break the mold at nine on a player the analytics say should not work? Miller says he asked a GM that exact question. The answer was clean. We will let someone else be smarter than us. We trust the numbers.

Rich lobs in the obvious follow-up. Has there ever been a college player with that arm length who looked like Bain on tape? Miller says no. That is the outlier. Aidan Hutchinson was close, shorter than people wanted but still above thirty-one, and it has not been a factor for him. Will Campbell in the Super Bowl, shorter arms, and once he got hurt and lost some quickness the length started to show. The throughline is that you can survive short arms if you have another elite trait. For Bain, it is power, not speed. Miller is less concerned than the analytics community, but he expects a slip and is fascinated to see how far.

Then the conversation pivots. If Bain, Tate, Tyson, Sonny Styles, Bailey, Reese, and Love are all gone, what do the Chiefs actually do at nine? Miller braces for the Kansas City pushback before answering. Right tackle. Jalen Moore is on a one-year deal as a career swing tackle. Patrick Mahomes is making a billion dollars. If you can run rookie-wage scale on both tackle spots, the math is gorgeous. Mauinoa or Fano shore up the right side. Receiver is in play with Rashee Rice's contract up, but the board pushes you to tackle.

Rich, never one to let a Chiefs bit go to waste, asks if Miller has studied the Kansas City right tackles for tells, the early step before the snap, the move they never get flagged for. Miller laughs. He won't be allowed back in town. Rich lands the button anyway.