Matt Miller on Ty Simpson's Red Flags

ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller has a question he cannot shake about Ty Simpson, and it is the one most people in the league are asking too. Fifteen career college starts. Not a lot of runway for a first-round quarterback.

Miller argues that number fifteen is the accurate lens, because that is how many starts Simpson has, and there is essentially zero precedent for a quarterback starting that few games in college and succeeding in the NFL over the last thirty years. He wants to be wrong. He shares a story about Luke Kuechly walking up to him at a Super Bowl to tell him the scouting report Miller wrote was wrong, and how much he loves those moments. He hopes Simpson gives him the same call in ten years.

But hope is not an evaluation.

Simpson is a great young man, Miller says, tough as heck, and he had a fantastic start last year before the wheels fell off the entire Alabama offense in the back half. For Simpson to prove the skeptics wrong, he has to land with the right team. That is where Rich takes the conversation.

The Jets have already started priming their fan base to draft a quarterback next year. Dropping Simpson into New York alongside a struggling Geno Smith and a coach potentially on the hot seat does not feel like a recipe for success. Rich compares it to the Vegas situation last season.

The Rams do not make sense at thirteen. Stafford has one or two years left, and the Rams can use that pick on a significant player who helps them win now. The Steelers at twenty-one? Miller is cautious. This feels like Kenny Pickett again, he warns. The smaller quarterback who falls to you, and you convince yourself you have to take him because you do not have one.

Pittsburgh, Miller believes, probably does what everyone else should do. Evaluate Simpson against next year's class. He walks through the names who decided to go back to school, Arch Manning, Dante Moore, both very good decisions. He notes that guys like Garrett Nussmeier and LaNorris Sellers did not live up to expectations this year.

The game of musical chairs is working against Simpson. There are not many teams that need a quarterback and can logically take him in the first round. That is where the surprise pick lives. Miller recalls Michael Penix to the Falcons at eight overall, right after they signed Kirk Cousins. Do the Dolphins shock everyone and take Simpson at thirty if he is still there? Do the Cardinals move up for him?

Miller does not see a clean landing spot. Every scenario requires a team talking itself into Simpson over a player who helps them win now, or passing on what next year's draft is projected to offer.

The evaluation is honest. The precedent is not there. And if Simpson does go in the first round, it will be one GM deciding potential beats history. That is how every quarterback conversation goes eventually.