What’s More Likely: Rich Talks NFC North, NFL MVP, Drake Maye, and more.

What's More Likely landed on the Friday of Labor Day weekend, which made it a season preview whether anyone planned it that way. Chris Brockman built the list accordingly, and Rich spent most of it refusing to be talked out of the obvious answer.

The opener was an NFC North quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards, Caleb Williams or Kyler Murray. Rich took Williams and explained why it was not close for him. Williams almost got there last year, to the point that Rich nearly put passing yards leader Caleb Williams on his mind-blowing list before deciding it was not a stretch at all.

What he would not do is hand it to Murray on arrival. His objection was to the premise underneath the question, that Murray simply needed a better situation. "Let's just see Kyler play football before we anoint that he's just, oh, all he needed was Kevin O'Connell and the Minnesota Vikings, as if his cupboard with Trey McBride and DeAndre Hopkins was completely bare in Arizona." Told that Murray has thrown for over 3,700 yards four separate times, Rich did not dispute the ability. He wants to watch it happen once. "I've already seen it with Caleb."

Next was which division sends three teams to the playoffs, the NFC North or the AFC West. Rich went AFC West, on the grounds that Denver can win a Super Bowl, the Chargers can get there, and Kansas City has demonstrated on more than one occasion that it knows the route.

His hesitation about the North was really two hesitations. He acknowledged the Packers are perennially better as a group than their roster reads on paper, then landed on the piece that is missing. Green Bay has spent years feeding Josh Jacobs on opening drives, eight, nine, ten carries inside the tackles, and Jacobs is not currently available. And Minnesota played well enough last season without quarterback play, which makes the case for them a bet that the quarterback play changes everything.

Then Brockman asked which Ohio State receiver finishes with the most yards, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Olave or Jeremiah Smith. Rich took Smith-Njigba, and made a point of the reasoning. "I'm going to be respectful of the reigning offensive player of the year," with a mostly intact offense returning, a new coordinator, and Sam Darnold throwing it.

Pressed to rank all three, he went Smith-Njigba, then Smith, then Olave, and both of his tiebreakers were about circumstance rather than talent. Olave has had availability questions, unfortunately and frequently. Smith is catching passes from a second-year quarterback.

The coaching question was the hardest one on the board. Which Super Bowl head coach wins more games in his new spot, Mike McCarthy or John Harbaugh? Rich took McCarthy, and the reason was inheritance. Look at what that team did last year.

He gave Harbaugh the better of it rhetorically, though, quoting a line from this week he clearly enjoyed. Harbaugh said the Giants' mission statement is to be the best team in the NFL and prove it. "Because he knows the way it works, man." Rich also fenced his answer carefully. McCarthy, for this year. Just this year.

On MVP, Brockman offered the four most recent winners, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford, against the field. Rich took the field without hesitation, and the room seemed surprised. His defense was arithmetic rather than disrespect. "It's the odds. I'm not saying these guys are not that good." He also let slip where his actual vote might go this year. "I might give it to Drake Maye this time around."

Then came the question Rich declined to answer at all, which was whether Aaron Donald or George Kittle is more likely to play Week 1 in Australia. He objected to the framing on principle. "Why does this have to be a choice? What am I, a doctor?" His answer, delivered three times, was that they are both playing, and he was not interested in speaking anything else into existence.

The Drake Maye prop was more ominous. Which is the higher number, Seahawks sacks on Maye or Maye completions to A.J. Brown? Rich went sacks, with a Super Bowl in which Maye was sacked six times sitting in the background.

That produced the best digression of the segment. Rich asked who does not want it to be their birthday next Wednesday, and Brockman named Will Campbell immediately. Then Rich explained the phrase for anyone who has not spent time around former players. He picked it up from Deion Sanders, Marshall Faulk, Michael Irvin and Warren Sapp, who would say it watching film. "That's basically when a team sees somebody who can be exploited on the other side of the football, and they're just going to keep making it that person's problem all day. It's his birthday."

The closer was aimed at TJ Jefferson, who had just drafted Christian McCaffrey. More likely, McCaffrey scores two touchdowns or Myles Garrett gets two sacks? Rich took McCaffrey, which is the opposite of what a self-described passionate Rams supporter would be expected to say, and he knew it.

Jefferson had set the trap on purpose, admitting he asked it that way expecting Rich to go the other direction. Rich declined to perform for the room. "Well, don't say it just to appease the masses."