What’s More Likely: Rich Talks Kyler, AFC South vs AFC North, NBA Playoffs, WNBA & James Bond

Friday's What's More Likely ran the table from a Vikings quarterback room to a debate about whether the NBA Draft Lottery is rigged. Rich handled each question with the same combination of certainty and reluctance.

On Kyler Murray versus the combined Cardinals quarterback room for total touchdown passes this year, Rich said it pained him to admit the obvious answer.

"It gives me so much pain to be straight up honest with you, that if Kyler Murray is taking on JJ McCarthy in a straight-up battle, there's a thumb on the scale for JJ," Rich said. The Vikings used a first-round pick on McCarthy. Murray costs $1.3 million for one year. The framework, in Rich's read, favors the rookie no matter how it actually plays out.

Then he flipped his own answer. Asked which player gets more this year, Rich went Kyler.

"Unless JJ has a full complete rebirth, it's tough for me to see how Kyler doesn't beat him out," he said.

On the AFC North versus NFC North playoff-wins question, Rich made the structural call. More NFC North teams will make it. The Lions, the Vikings, and a possibly reloaded Bears or Packers room all factor. Even with Lamar Jackson and a Steelers team Rich thinks will be in the mix, more bodies in from the NFC gives that division the edge.

The Fernando Mendoza offensive rookie of the year question was where Rich's gut overrode the data. Voters have been on a wide-receiver kick. A wide receiver won the award last year.

"Wide receiver fatigue," Rich called it. He went quarterback. Mendoza. Gut and feel. He admitted he is not sure Mendoza starts Week 1, but said the kid is slinging it at Raiders mini camp.

The Travis Hunter touchdowns-versus-interceptions question got resolved on the back of the news from earlier in the week. The Jaguars have confirmed Hunter plays both sides of the ball and that his cornerback usage is going up.

"I'll go interceptions," Rich said.

The playoff series question, which team scores a win first between the Sixers, Lakers, and Cavaliers, got the most emotional answer. Rich went Cavs. He thinks Cleveland keeps the series alive. The Lakers, in his phrasing, came and gave without taking away a win, with a quick aside about Barry Manilow that the cast had to dismantle in real time.

The NBA Draft Lottery question was the one Rich refused to entertain at face value. Asked whether everything will be on the up and up, Rich went the other way. He listed the historical happy coincidences as evidence. Memphis and New Orleans landing the picks the year Zion Williamson and Ja Morant came out. Dallas pulling number one after the Luka Doncic trade. The Thunder potentially landing the first pick this year. He was not signing off on a clean draw.

The WNBA MVP question got a quick A'ja Wilson. Rich noted that pick would put her in striking distance of a fourth award.

The James Bond closer was the easiest of the bunch.

"It's always Sean Connery," Rich said. He pointed to the night, on draft week years ago, when someone told him he looked like Connery in a white turtleneck and beard. The comparison stuck.