McShay on Draft's Trade Domino Effect

Todd McShay walked through his Mock Draft 4.0 with Rich eight days out, and the board tells a story: the best football players in this class don't play premium positions.

In McShay's mock, Mendoza goes 1 to the Raiders, Bailey 2 to the Jets, and then the Saints trade up to 3 to grab Arvell Reese. That's the move he admits he's least certain about. What he is certain about: Arizona wants out of the third pick. Monti Ossenfort and the Cardinals have reasons to move, Jeremiah Love at 3 is possible but a luxury after bringing in Tyler Algeier, and Francis Mauigoa is the player they'd love to get at better value.

The Titans at 4 is where it gets dramatic. McShay painted the picture of Brian Daboll, Mike Borgonzi, and Robert Saleh in the same draft room. Daboll wanted Cam Ward so badly last year he tried to give up everything; now he's pushing hard for Jeremiah Love to pair with Ward. Saleh wants defense. Borgonzi is the tiebreaker, and McShay thinks the offense wins because both Daboll and Saleh got fired in New York for not fielding one.

The Giants at 5 is where his mock might shift. McShay filed the piece Monday, and between then and Wednesday the texts started. One exec told him Giants are going defense. Two former Harbaugh draft-room people said he'll love Caleb Downs and Sunny Styles, but there's something about finishing the offensive line first. If McShay redid the pick right now, he'd go Styles, narrowly ahead of Downs.

That changes the Cowboys' math. If Styles goes 5, does Dallas still trade up to 6? McShay thinks they're more motivated if Downs is the target. Cleveland at 6 wants out too. They love Kaeden Proctor, 390 pounds in-season, 352 at the combine. Cleveland's analytics drive everything.

The bigger pattern: the best players in this draft outside of Mendoza are Jeremiah Love, Sunny Styles, Arvell Reese, and Caleb Downs. Running back, off-ball linebacker, conversion player, safety. McShay told GMs to take a shot of novocaine and draft them anyway. Positional value is a trap this year.