Rich’s Pick to Win the NFC North This Season Is ...?

Three of the four people asked to predict the NFC North landed in roughly the same place. Rich went somewhere else entirely, and put the Packers last.

TJ Jefferson went first and took Chicago to win it, with Green Bay second, Detroit third and Minnesota fourth. His Vikings placement came with a hedge, because he thinks they will be better than the consensus expects, and a personal stake, since he expects Kyler Murray to help his cousin Justin Jefferson climb back up the receiver rankings.

Chris Brockman agreed on the winner and reshuffled the middle. Bears, Lions, Packers, Vikings, with the top three all making the playoffs. He also thinks this division produces more total wins than any other.

Michael Irvin, sitting in for the segment, matched at the top and bottom while flagging the reason his order might not hold. He had the Packers, Lions and Vikings behind Chicago, and the caveat was health. With Micah Parsons not fully available early, "they get no pressure without Micah Parsons," which he thinks could flip things.

Rich announced up front that his ballot would look different, and it did.

He put Detroit first. His reasoning ran through the offense, expecting Jahmyr Gibbs to do what everyone anticipates and Jared Goff to bounce back. The rest was closer to a plea than an analysis. "Let's just have the football gods stop kicking them in the injury nards, man."

He was not down on Chicago at all, and gave them real credit for last season, noting they kept winning games in the fourth quarter behind a highly opportunistic defense.

The Packers are where he broke from the room. His concerns are specific and current. Josh Jacobs is out for an unknown stretch, and Parsons is out for the beginning of the season. He also noted Green Bay finished poorly last year.

Rich argued against himself while getting there, acknowledging the thing everyone knows about that franchise. "The Packers always do better than you think though." He toyed with putting them last, and then did it.

The most interesting exchange came out of the Chicago and Detroit question, and it belonged to Irvin. "Ben Johnson is the swing in this Chicago-Detroit thing. Since Ben left, Detroit's not really been Detroit offensively." His supporting evidence is what Johnson has done since, one division over.

Rich's counter was that the failure was in the succession plan rather than the departure. Detroit's attempt to replace Johnson did not work last year, and switching coordinators midstream was not the answer.

Irvin's response was the part worth keeping, and it applies well beyond Detroit. "You think you got the great players, you can bring anybody in here and they run these plays. It doesn't work that way."

For all the disagreement about the order, everyone landed in the same place about the quality. Rich expects every team in the division to finish above .500, and wanted his fourth-place vote read accordingly. "Just because one team's in fourth place, it's not because I don't think they're good. I just don't know how they're going to start."

He did note one bit of scheduling mercy for the team he ranked last. They are at the Jets in Week 2. "I'm not saying that the Jets are a homecoming, but you never know."