Rich’s Pick to Win the AFC West This Season Is….?

The AFC West preview came with a warning. The Chargers had already zoomed in for a later segment, which meant Jim Harbaugh might be listening to whatever got said about his team.

What got said was mostly flattering. Chris Brockman took Los Angeles to win the division outright, and his case was built on the offense finally taking a leap. Mike McDaniel is running it. The offensive line is healthy. Omarion Hampton is in the backfield, and Brockman is curious how Keaton Mitchell gets used. Quentin Johnston becomes the deep threat, with their top target back to being a genuine number one.

He had Denver right there in a neck-and-neck race all season, with both teams making the playoffs and nobody else from the division joining them. His two projections underneath that were harsher. Kansas City does not finish above .500, and the Raiders pick in the top five again.

TJ Jefferson agreed on the bottom and disagreed on almost everything above it. He also put the Raiders fourth, then went Chargers third, Chiefs second and Denver first, running it back. And he pushed the playoff math up. "I think the AFC West is sending three teams to the playoffs."

Rich, who gets accused every year of either being a closet Chiefs fan or being afraid to upset Eric Stonestreet, promised to shoot straight and then delivered a Kansas City ranking that should settle the accusation.

He put the Chiefs third.

His questions there are real ones. He needs to see what the defense looks like, and he wants to know who is catching the ball beyond Travis Kelce and possibly Rashee Rice. The one thing he is genuinely eager to watch is the new back. "Can we get a thousand yard rusher for Mahomes or what?"

On the Raiders, Rich was sympathetic without being generous. He likes it when that franchise is good, calling it good for business, but the verdict was blunt. "This is a very deep end of the pool, and they're still dipping their toe in." Fourth.

At the top he refused to separate the two teams he liked most, and then had to. Denver and the Chargers, in some order, with Rich openly wishing he could file a 1 and 1A.

His enthusiasm for the Chargers runs through the offense, and specifically through McDaniel, whom he has been high on all summer. His hesitation is on the other side of the ball, where Los Angeles is breaking in a new defensive coordinator after losing one Rich rates as highly as anyone in the profession. "I just don't know if that's going to be seen on the field defensively or not."

He also disagreed with Brockman on the playoff count, siding with Jefferson. Rich thinks Kansas City wins enough games to get in, which sends three teams from the division.

Then he did the thing that makes these segments worth doing, which is checking the schedule and finding the payoff. Denver and the Chargers close the regular season against each other. Rich confirmed it is the final game on the calendar, and it is in Denver.

So he called his shot. That game decides the division.