Rich & Company Predict How the NFL Playoffs Could Look Very Different This Season

Four to six playoff teams turn over every year in the NFL. Sometimes half the field. So the show ran the exercise with a rule that keeps everyone honest: you cannot just name a team you like, you have to name the team it supplants.

Chris went first and avoided his usual suspects. No Chiefs, no Cowboys.

His AFC casualty is Houston. "I am out on CJ Stroud," Chris said, arguing Stroud is playing for his contract future and the offense will not keep up with the defense. Cincinnati takes that wild card slot, on the theory that the offense stays healthy, puts up the points everyone expects, and the defense climbs to "slightly above terrible." Ten wins gets it done.

Rich pushed back hard on that. The Houston defense is too good, he likes the Montgomery signing, he is counting on Tank Dell coming back and last year's rookie receivers improving, and Nico Collins is one of the best in the league when healthy. His verdict on the pick: a don't-pass bet on Stroud.

TJ went a different direction and put the Chargers out, careful to say it has nothing to do with anything Los Angeles did wrong. The line is fortified, Mike Williams is in there, he loves Jamaryion Hampton, and Justin Herbert is still Justin Herbert. The problem is who is passing them.

"Number 15's that man until somebody takes that title of best quarterback in the world away," TJ said, reaching for Ric Flair. "As long as he stays healthy, the Chiefs are going to Chief, man." He does not have Kansas City catching Denver, which makes it a wild card swap.

Rich's AFC answer was the one he flagged as an I-need-to-see-it pick. He has the Steelers missing, even with McCarthy and Rodgers on the same page and some added explosiveness, because there are a lot of changes and the bar is raised. Pittsburgh damn near missed it last year.

Coming in behind them: Baltimore. Rich is excited about what Jesse Minter brings to the defense, about a new offensive coordinator out of the Ben Johnson system, and about a better run game. He also took the Ravens to win the North.

Over in the NFC, both Chris and TJ landed on Carolina going out, a team Chris thinks got lucky sneaking in last year. Chris is buying the Saints to win the South at 9 and 8. TJ picked New Orleans as his sleeper weeks ago, then put the Cowboys in, which touched off an argument about who exactly Dallas is supposed to be pushing out if the Panthers are already gone.

TJ's case for the Cowboys: all 11 offensive starters returning, a fresh approach on defense, Caleb Downs, and Von Miller. "We don't have to be the best defense in the world," he said. "We just got to be a little bit better than we were before."

Rich saved the pick most likely to generate mail for last, and he knew it. He is out on the Packers. He loves the coach and they are good every year, but they finished poorly, he is wondering about Josh Jacobs, and the receiver question comes up every damn year.

Detroit takes the spot. Rich likes the offense in a hot-seat spotlight, likes Jahmyr Gibbs as a bell cow, likes Dan Campbell on the sideline, and likes that nobody is talking about a team that went all in on long-term money.

"Everybody thinks their window is closed," he said. It has been a long time since the Lions were out. Maybe he is wrong.