Rapoport on the Draft's First Big Trade

Ten days out from the draft, Ian Rapoport told Rich the biggest story isn't the quarterbacks. Fernando Mendoza is locked in at No. 1. The real drama is where the first big trade lands.

Rapoport's frame: David Bailey and Arvell Reese are the two top edge rushers, and one of them is going second overall. The Cardinals at No. 3 have options, a tackle, Jeremiah Love, or one of the remaining edge players. That opens the door for a team with two firsts to leap into the top five.

His nominee is Dallas. The Cowboys have the capital. Reese is the Micah Parsons comp. The symmetry writes itself. Rapoport thinks the Cowboys are the most obvious team to risk it all for a generational edge rusher with position flexibility.

Rich walked through Daniel Jeremiah's mock from his Sunday Night SportsCenter hit. Bailey to the Jets at 2. Maason Smith to Arizona at 3. Reese falls to the Titans at 4. Sunny Styles to the Giants at 5. Fautanu to Cleveland at 6. Then the big move: Washington, without a second-round pick and needing roster help, trades No. 7 to the Jets. New York sends pick 16, its second second-rounder, and a fourth to leap up and grab Carnell Tate, pairing him with Garrett Wilson in an all-Ohio-State receiver room.

Rapoport compared the potential move to the Sammy Watkins trade, when the Bills went from 9 to 4 and added a future first and fourth. This Jets hypothetical is cheaper, a first swap plus a second-second and a fourth. Rapoport thinks Daniel Jeremiah might actually know something. Jeremiah was the one who pegged CJ Stroud at 2 and Will Anderson at 3 two years ago, which is exactly how the Texans played it.

The Jets' 2027 fingerprints are everywhere in this conversation. They intentionally took Dallas's 2027 first in the Quinnen Williams trade. They're telegraphing a 2027 quarterback plan. Rapoport argues that makes a 2026 trade-up for a weapon reasonable, especially after last year, which Rich summarized as any New York Jet not named Breece Hall needs to bounce back.

Ti'Aunahi Simpson is the other sub-plot. Rapoport and Rich walk through why the Titans might trade down at 4 if Reese is the board, why the Giants are staying put at 5 with too many first-round-caliber options, and why the Commanders at 7 are a realistic pivot point. The 2027 quarterback class looms over every decision. Rapoport says it's even more present in GM conversations than he expected.

The close is about capital. Teams with 2027 picks are guarding them. Teams with 2026 capital want to use it. That's the tension driving the week.