Jay Bilas on Michigan vs. Arizona

Jay Bilas walks into the Final Four with two narratives already set. The first is that Duke and Houston on one side of the bracket feel like the de facto national championship game. The second, delivered with a grin, is that the officials working the Final Four are listening to Rich's show and making mental notes on how to screw Michigan. Bilas tells Rich to accept both.

Rich pushes back on the first storyline by pulling out a memory from 1983. Louisville and Houston played a dunk-heavy classic that year on one side of the bracket while Georgia and NC State played on the other. Everyone assumed the winner of the dunk contest would cut down the nets. NC State won the title. Bilas agrees and says if he were Illinois or UConn right now, he would embrace the exact same setup. Let the heavyweight fight happen in the other semifinal. Show up the next day healthier.

On Arizona versus Michigan, Bilas breaks down why the matchup works. Both teams have real size and both play physical basketball, but their offenses come from different places. Arizona is an inside-oriented team that runs high-low sets, gets downhill, and attacks the rim on every possession. The Wildcats have great positional size in the interior, and their math at the free throw line is the tell. Arizona has attempted more free throws than their opponents on the season, and they have made more free throws in tournament play than their opponents have attempted. The free throw line is the most efficient place to score in basketball.

That puts the responsibility on Michigan to play physical without fouling. If Arizona gets to the line 25 to 30 times, Bilas says the game tilts. He also notes that Michigan has a gear most teams do not. They can unleash a 20-to-2 run in a few possessions. He is not sure that is possible against Arizona, but Michigan is the rare team capable of it.

Bilas circles back to the Duke-Michigan game in Washington, D.C. What surprised him that night was that Michigan never got to their second and third actions in their half-court possessions. If those teams played again, he believes Michigan would not let that happen. The same note applies to the Arizona game. Michigan runs great offense and has real weapons, with Yaxel Lendeborg acting as what Bilas calls the queen on the chessboard for Dusty May.

If Michigan gets to those later actions the way UConn has over the last two tournaments, they become extraordinarily difficult to beat. Bilas calls the matchup worthy of a title game, and says the bonus of the semifinals is that a great championship game is still waiting on the other side of it.