ESPN’s Brian Windhorst Breaks Down the Fascinating NBA Draft Lottery Intrigue

Brian Windhorst is going to be in the room on Sunday. Not the television room. The room where the actual ping pong balls come out. He explained why he is excited about it, and why an entire billion-dollar business turns on the fourth ball.

The ESPN insider, on the show ahead of the NBA Draft Lottery, walked Rich through what he called the most important draft drawing in years. It is the last lottery as currently constituted. It is widely seen as a four-player draft. And the trade math underneath it is brutal in the way only the NBA can engineer.

The Clippers, Windhorst said, will walk out of Sunday with either the fifth pick or nothing. The pick they once owned now flows through Indiana, which keeps it inside the top four, hands it to the Clippers if it lands fifth through ninth, and ends with the Thunder if it falls outside that range. 'It's like a rangefinder,' Rich said. 'You get the fifth pick in this draft, you could draft a new franchise cornerstone, or you have nothing.'

The Pacers, Windhorst noted, have a 52% chance of staying in the top four, the same odds as last year's Jazz and Wizards. Both got passed. 'It's 50-50.' Sam Presti, the Thunder's president, is scheduled to be in the lottery room despite Oklahoma City's playoff series with the Lakers, because the Thunder's interest in that Clippers pick is large enough to justify his attendance.

The Hawks, who hold the New Orleans pick, could walk out with their playoff roster plus a top-three selection. The Warriors and Mavericks are also in the mix. Rich offered the obvious lottery joke. 'But we know what's going to happen, Brian. The Warriors are going to get the first pick.' Windhorst pushed back with the date he says killed every conspiracy theory in the league. 'The Knicks and Lakers are in the top four, and the other teams are Memphis and New Orleans,' he said, recalling the year Zion Williamson and Ja Morant were the prizes. The balls did not deliver the storyline. They delivered Memphis and New Orleans.

The heart of his argument was last year's draw. The Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets all entered with the worst record. All three had embarrassed themselves to get there. The first three picks went to other teams. The three of them sat in the actual lottery room, next to each other, waiting for the fourth ball. 'One of them is getting the fourth pick, which is Kon Knueppel,' Windhorst said. 'And the other two are getting nothing. They're getting five and six.'

The Hornets won that ball. 'It totally changed the whole direction of the franchise,' he said. 'The difference between the misery that was the Wizards and Jazz this year, which was miserable, and the Hornets, who are regarded as one of the up and coming franchises in the league, was the fourth ball.'

That, Windhorst said, is why front offices tank. That is why fans are exhausted. That is why he is flying to a room full of executives to watch four numbers come out of a machine.