‘4 Downs’ with Rich: the Denver Broncos’ Biggest Questions Heading into the 2026 NFL Season

The Denver Broncos have the eighth best odds in the AFC, and Rich cannot make it make sense.

That is where his four-down preview ended up, but it starts somewhere more interesting.

First down: what does Sean Payton not calling plays actually look like?

Davis Webb has the headset now, and Rich framed the oddity correctly. Head coaches are the most control-freakish people he has ever met, and Super Bowl-winning head coaches with Hall of Fame résumés are the most control-freakish of those. Payton has voluntarily handed it over.

So what is the picture at four minutes to go, or two? Webb standing there making the call, Payton pacing with his arms crossed?

Rich is genuinely curious.

Second down: the Waddle effect.

Denver has Courtland Sutton, a big physical target, and then, with all due respect, the rest of the group. Now Jaylen Waddle arrives, and Rich does not think this offense has ever had anyone quite like him, in the Payton era or before it.

The questions are about sequencing more than volume. What burst does number 17 add? How does he open the run game? Is it first and Sutton, third and Waddle? Or the reverse?

The same uncertainty applies to the backfield, where Rich wonders how many carries RJ Harvey gets with JK Dobbins and the rest of that room.

Third down: can this defense reach 70 sacks?

They had 68 last season. The last team to hit 70 was the 2022 Eagles, and it has only happened four times in league history. Jonathan Cooper opening the season on the commissioner's exempt list does not help.

Rich thinks they are that good anyway, with Vance Joseph dialing it up.

Fourth down is the one everyone is actually asking. Can year three Bo Nix become an MVP finalist?

Rich wants the whole package. The deep balls, protecting the football, taking over games, and doing it with the consistency he has already shown in flashes. He called it a tall order and then made clear why he is asking.

This is a Super Bowl-worthy team. The roster can win one. The head coach already has. They can win the division, the conference, the league.

The specific structural argument he made is about the trenches. Denver plays the Rams in week three, and the Broncos are one of the few teams equipped to keep a quarterback upright with Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett coming at them, because Rich believes they have arguably the best offensive line in the league.

Which is exactly why the odds baffle him.

Seven AFC teams sit ahead of Denver: the Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, Chargers, Bengals, Patriots and Texans. The Broncos also have the third best odds in their own division.

"That's nuts," Rich said. This is a team one ankle away from a much better shot at hosting an AFC Championship game, on a one seed they had earned. They arguably got better, because Nix is healthy and Waddle is here.

His theory about the disconnect is that we now live in a fantasy football world, and he ran the roster through that lens to prove it. Nix is a quarterback nobody starts. Sutton is not a fantasy starter. Harvey and Dobbins are not high. Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant, Evan Engram and Adam Trautman are late-round picks or later.

Add that up and you get odds that look like this.

The offensive line is the answer, and it is the one thing fantasy cannot price. Nobody drafts an offensive line. In actual football, you control the line of scrimmage and you are physical.

Rich likes this offense better than Houston's, and calls the Chargers a toss-up.

The schedule makers, meanwhile, did not miss. Week 1 is Denver at Kansas City on Monday night.