Overreaction Monday: Draft Week Trades

Draft week edition of Overreaction Monday, taped the morning the show headed to Pittsburgh. Rich and Chris Brockman ran through eight takes, and the over-under on agreement was low.

First, Brockman asked if the Raiders should ride with Kirk Cousins and trade down to take a quarterback in 2027. Rich flat rejected it. Fernando Mendoza is the pick. Rich compared his resume, undefeated national champion, Heisman Trophy winner, to Cam Newton and Joe Burrow. Take him. Rip the knob off. Kirk Cousins buys the patience.

Second, the Bengals' Dexter Lawrence trade. Brockman said Cincinnati will have a top-five defense for the first time in the Burrow era. Rich called it an overreaction, but he sees the signal. The move is Cincinnati telling Joe Burrow, who reportedly has wanderlust about Los Angeles, that the franchise is serious. Pay Lawrence one year at $28M spread across three years. Slot him in the middle of the defense. Stop losing 38-37.

Third, the Giants winning the NFC East after trading the No. 10 pick plus Lawrence. Overreaction. Rich likes the Giants' top-10 draft haul, Jeremiah Love, Carnell Tate, Sunny Styles, Caleb Downs are all on the board, but the Eagles are still loaded and the Cowboys draft well. Division title is a bridge too far.

Fourth, Jeremy Fowler reported Kansas City might move up to No. 3 for Jeremiah Love. Brockman said it means Andy Reid is worried about Mahomes's long-term health and wants a full run attack. Rich shut it down. If the Chiefs move to 3, it's for Arvell Reese, not Love. Every team has that edge on the board. The Jets could take David Bailey at 2, triggering phone calls to Arizona at 3 from the Saints, Chiefs, Titans, Cowboys.

Fifth, with six teams holding multiple first-rounders, Brockman said half of them trade up. Rich didn't push back hard. The Dolphins' second first is too low at 30. The Chiefs' 29th pick might not have the capital to move into the top 10. But the Cowboys, Saints, and Jets all have rumored interest.

Sixth, Daniel Jeremiah said Tai Simpson to the Cardinals is inevitable. Brockman said that means Arizona is already in tank mode for 2027. Rich called it an April story. Jacoby Brissett wants more money, Arizona doesn't know what their board looks like yet, and nothing gets resolved until after the draft.

Seventh, Pittsburgh. Brockman's take: forget Aaron Rodgers, call Derek Carr. Rich pushed back. The Steelers drafting another quarterback plus Rodgers plus Mike McCarthy's track record developing Dak Prescott makes the Rodgers plan coherent. It's not Derek Carr.

Finally, AJ Brown to New England after June 1. Brockman said Brown will lead the NFL in touchdowns. Rich didn't call it an overreaction. Brown is the Randy Moss comp for Drake Maye, a physical outside receiver who wins 50/50 balls. If the trade happens, Rich sees the fit. Maye's deep ball and Brown's 50/50 game are made for each other.